A new report shows the power sector, with its diversified fuel mix, leads energy demand and growth to 2030, while Transport languishes behind
By Anna Game-Lopata | January 25, 2013
The power sector, with its diversified fuel mix, leads energy demand and growth to 2030 while transport languishes behind.
Newly released,
the BP Energy Outlook 2030 reports renewable energy sources contribute 27 percent of the growth in the power sector, just ahead of coal (26 percent) and gas (21 percent).
“Energy used for power generation grows by 49 percent (2.1 percent
pa) from 2011-30, and accounts for 57 percent of global primary energy growth,” says BP Group Chief Economist Christof Rühl.
In second place, the industrial sector leads the growth of final energy consumption, particularly in rapidly developing economies.
The report reveals the industrial sector accounts for 57 percent of the projected growth of final energy demand to 2030.
“Primary energy used directly in industry grows by 31 percent (1.4 percent pa), accounting for 25 percent of the growth of primary energy consumption,” Rühl says.
Meanwhile, the transport sector shows the weakest growth, with OECD transport demand projected to decline.
The sector does starts to show some diversification away from oil; with gas accounting for 16 percent of transport energy demand growth, and another 13 percent coming from biofuels, and 2 percent from electricity.
The outlook shows the fastest growing fuels are renewables (including biofuels) with growth averaging 7.6 percent p.a. 2011-30.
Nuclear (2.6 percent pa) and hydro (2.0 percent pa) follow, both growing faster than total energy.
Among fossil fuels, gas grows the fastest (2.0 percent pa), followed by coal (1.2 percent pa), and oil (0.8 percent pa).
BP Group Chief Executive, Bob Dudley says
the outlook describes a future that is different in several respects from what many expected just a short while ago.
“We still expect global energy demand to grow – by 36 percent between 2011 and 2030 – driven by the emerging economies,” he says.
“Without continuous improvements in energy efficiency, demand would have to grow much more rapidly simply to sustain economic growth.
“However supply patterns are shifting. The outlook demonstrates how unconventional oil and gas are playing a major role in meeting global demand.
“Over the period to 2030, the US becomes nearly self-sufficient in energy, while China and India become increasingly import-dependent.”
The outlook shows world primary energy production growth matching consumption, growing by 1.6 percent pa from 2011 to 2030.
“As is the case for energy consumption, growth in production will be dominated by the non-OECD countries, which will account for 78 percent of the world’s increase,” Christof Rühl says.
“These countries will supply 71 percent of global energy production in 2030, up from 69 percent in 2011 and 58 percent in 1990.
The Asia Pacific region, the largest regional energy producer, shows the most rapid growth rate (2.2 percent
p.a.), due to large indigenous coal production.
It accounts for 48 percent of global energy production growth. The region is predicted to provide 35 percent of global energy production by 2030.
The Energy Outlook predicts high prices for fossil fuels will support the expansion of new technologies across a range of energy sources
“The ‘shale revolution’, first for gas and then for oil, is an example of this,” says Rühl. “From 2011 to 2030 shale gas more than trebles and tight oil grows more than six-fold.
“Together they will account for almost a fifth of the increase in global energy supply to 2030.”
Despite growth from shale, renewables and other sources, conventional fossil fuel supplies are still required to expand, providing almost half the growth in energy supply.
World primary energy consumption is projected to grow by 1.6 percent pa from 2011 to 2030, adding 36 percent to global consumption by 2030.
The growth rate declines, from 2.5 percent pa for 2000-10, to 2.1 percent pa for 2010-20, and 1.3 percent pa from 2020 to 2030.
“Low and medium income economies outside the OECD account for over 90 percent of population growth to 2030,” Rühl says .
“Due to their rapid industrialisation, urbanisation and motorisation, they also contribute 70 percent of the global GDP growth and over 90 percent of the global energy demand growth.”