BITRE forecast sees growth as relentless but somewhat slower
The Bureau of Infrastructure, Transport and Regional Economics (BITRE) has given governments and the transport and logistics industry another hefty reminder that container trade growth never sleeps and will not let up.
In its third port-trade forecast in eight years, BITRE’s Containerised and non-containerised trade through Australian ports to 2032–33 report foresees a near-tripling of container traffic in the next 20 years.
Total containerised trade is seen growing at 5.1 per cent a year, from 7.2 million 20-foot equivalent units (TEU) in 2012–13 to 19.4 million TEU in 2032–33.
Driven by “the continuing positive economic outlook for Australia and its major trading partners”, it is forecast to increase 6.2 per cent annually in Brisbane, 4.5 per cent in Sydney, 4.8 per cent in Melbourne, 5.4 per cent in Adelaide, 5.8 per cent in Fremantle and 5.1 per cent across all other ports.
By 2032–33, the total volume of containerised trade is projected to reach to 3.6 million TEU in Brisbane, 5.2 million TEU in Sydney, 6.4 million TEU in Melbourne, around 1.0 million TEU in Adelaide, 2.1 million TEU in Fremantle and 1.2 million TEU across all other ports.
With Europe facing another bout of deflation and throughput at the Port of Melbourne plateauing somewhat recently, some may question the direction.
But BITRE states that it relies on long-run assumptions about future population growth, economic growth, exchange rates, export prices and import prices sourced from Australian Bureau of Statistics along with the Organisation of Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and the International Monetary Fund, with macroeconomic assumptions were sourced from Deloitte Access Economics.
Over the next 20 years, real GDP is forecast to increase by an annual average of 2.7 per cent a year for Australia, 2.5 per cent a year across the OECD, 1.3 per cent a year in Japan, 2.3 per cent a year for the United States and 6.7 per cent a year for China.
“This is below average trend growth experienced in Australia, USA and China and slightly above average trend growth experienced across all OECD countries and Japan over the past two decades,” the report states.
“Consequently, these assumptions will broadly act to lower containerised and non-containerised import volume growth through Australian ports compared to the historical trend.”
Thus the Port of Melbourne, which has increased by 5.9 per cent a year over the last 14 years, is projected to increase by 4.8 per cent a year over the next 20 years to 6.4 million TEU in 2032-33.
“The slightly lower rate of growth projected over the forecast period is due to the lower import growth forecast resulting from projected lower future economic growth in Australia and the assumed depreciation of the Australian dollar against the US dollar,” the report says.
Full container exports and imports are forecast to grow annually by 4.3 and 5 per cent over the next 20 years to 2-3 million TEU in 2032-33, respectively.
The reduction is to be sharper in Sydney where throughput rose 6.5 per cent per year over the last 14 years to 2.1 million TEU in 2012-13.
It is projected to rise 4.5 per cent a year over the next 20 years to 5.2 million TEU in 2032-33. Full container exports and imports are to rise 3.4 and 4.6 per cent a year, respectively, over the forecast period.
BITRE put the difference down to Melbourne’s higher population growth.
Brisban’s growth rate is expected to slow from 3.7 per cent a year to 2.8 per cent.
The full report can be found here.