Mixed signals for the coming year but Taylor sees longer term growth rate needing to reach 40,000 units a year soon to keep up with demnd
January 7, 2013
The Truck Industry Council (TIC)
says it is encouraged by the newly-released 2012 sales figures, which show an increase of more than 10 percent on the previous year’s result to a tally of 30,745 units.
But the manufacturers’ representative body believes higher growth rates in new and better trucks will be needed to handle the forecast steep rise in transport demand.
“The 2012 increase over 2011 exceeded most expectations expressed at the beginning of the year,” TIC president Phil Taylor says.
Taylor says the growth of the heavy-duty segment relative to the others – to almost 11,400 vehicles – is “quite surprising”.
“It’s good for the industry, especially for the local truck manufacturers, all of which compete mainly in the heavy-duty segment,” he says.
“While part of the gains can be explained by the return of some fleets to purchasing new capital, and easing of restrictions and interest rates in the financial sector, the resources boom appears to be keeping sales quite strong in the north and west.”
An initial TIC forecast for the total truck market in 2013 is for a further 5 percent increase in sales.
“It is difficult to predict what truck sales will do in 2013,” Taylor says. “Most analysts predict another interest rate cut or two from the Reserve bank, which should allow finance for new capital equipment to remain very competitive.
“However other forecasts for retail, housing and a probable slowing in the resources sector’s growth could have a possible adverse effect on truck sales.”
Taylor says TIC projections anticipate that sales need to increase to well beyond 40,000 units per annum within a few years, just to keep up with demand for moving goods.
“To stimulate the market to these levels may require the introduction of suitable government incentives to buy new trucks, with their vastly improved productivity, safety and environmental performance,” he says.
“Otherwise, freight companies will be forced to keep their older trucks just to have enough vehicles on the road, and that presents Australia with a significant fleet average age problem which results in a poor environmental and safety outcome.”