Deutsche Bank Australia research finds fuel surcharges will absorb most of the transport costs associated with carbon pricing in Australia
By Anna Game-Lopata | February 3, 2012
Deutsche Bank Australia research finds fuel surcharges imposed by the Transport & Logistics sector will absorb most of the costs associated with carbon pricing in Australia.
“We don’t see the carbon tax having a huge impact across sector as a whole because of the existing methodology in terms of fuel surcharges,” confirms Deutsche Bank Australia Head of Transport and Infrastructure Research Cameron McDonald.
“However, demand for services may well be affected given new pricing structures, in particular for air fares given airlines have a large carbon footprint and will not benefit from support through government subsides.”
The research, to be presented by McDonald and Deutsche Bank Chief Economist Adam Boyton in a special invitation-only Transport and Logistics Economic Briefing, will provide insight into
the effect of the Australian and international economies on the sector.
Coinciding with the start of the company reporting season, the February 15 briefing to be held in partnership with Logistics Executive Recruitment, will also offer a preview about what to expect from leading transport and logistics stocks.
McDonald says Australian transport stocks are facing uncertain times.
“Both global and domestic companies will have a conservative story to tell in terms of their outlook and our expectations are set with that,” he says.
However he
says feedback from the industry is that the 2011 Christmas period was not as bad as expected despite being described as ‘patchy’.
“Our underlying economic data shows we are undergoing a state of rapid transition and how that is affecting the historical performance of Australia’s traditional transport sector,” he says.
As one example, McDonald points to changes in the activity of the transport sector as the United States economy recovers from the Global Financial Crisis.
“Sales are up in US but inventory levels haven’t recovered,” he says.
“As a result transport companies are doing more with less. The velocity of business transactions has increased but capacity has come out.
“Businesses are storing less, they require fewer warehouses but they need more staff and more trucks, a pattern we might see arising in Australia.”
In addition along with the resources boom which is driving historic changes in infrastructure development, particularly in Queensland, the consumer sector is facing
the challenge of online retailing.
“We are seeing companies being forced to adapt to the dramatic transformation in the behaviour of consumers,” McDonald says.
“The need for change affects Australia’s retail models but also the supply chains that support them.”
In terms of what we can expect from the leading stocks, McDonald says it will depend on how quickly businesses can take advantage of the opportunities presented by both the structural and cyclical economic changes facing them.
“The impact of the global economy, currency changes, the resources boom and the growth of its related support services including the need for talent and the advent of online retail in the consumer sector are all providing the sort of significant changes to the supply chain stock holders need to watch.”
Industry professionals interested in the February 15 event should contact Kim Winter
kimw@logisticsexecutive.com
on 0411883368