Report predicts boost for economy but history for professional drivers
The Australia and New Zealand Driverless Vehicle Initiative (ADVI) has predicted that the driverless vehicle industry is set to provide Australia with a major productivity rise, as soon as 2025.
On the release of a connected and automated vehicles (CAVs) report it commissioned on the innovation’s likely impacts, ADVI foresees many of the sorts of gains electric vehicle proponents argue will come the nation’s way if that propulsion source gains resources and policies to grow.
For freight transport and logistics companies, it sees driverless vehicles “offering an increase of capacity for logistics companies, allowing for more shipments, and the technical transition of a driver to become a monitor of an autonomous vehicle system”.
Driver impacts
But in a rejection of recent naysaying in the general transport and logistics world, the report, Autonomous Vehicles: Employment Impacts by MacroPlan Dimasi, expects a huge impact on employment there.
“The key job losses are in the transport, postal and warehousing industry, with a decreasing level of staff required in the employment intensive trucking and freight transport industries due to CAVs replacing drivers,” it states.
“There is estimated to be a decrease of -3,339 jobs per annum (-39.8 per cent of the industry growth) due to the CAV industry from 2036 onwards.”
That said, the report is unclear on how long-haul trucking might be affected, though the outcome might be OK in the short to medium term.
It quotes an earlier US report, Economic Effects Of Automated Vehicles by Clements and Kockleman, as noting “opportunity for heavy-truck drivers to do other work or rest during long drives may lower freight costs and increase productivity”, which accepts that those drivers will still be around.
“The role of the truck driver could become more technical, as they would need to monitor the CAV system to ensure it is running properly.
“Such a role would likely require training and could increase the value and wage of individual truck drivers.”
Transition period
In the longer term, given a submission to the House of Representatives Committees Standing Committee on Industry, Innovation, Science and Resources inquiry into the social issues relating to land-based driverless vehicles in Australia by the Northern Territory Department of Business, Industry and Resource Development (DBIRD), things look less promising, though a transition period is envisaged.
“Employment is expected to decrease as the CAVs will replace the requirement for these roles,” the ADVI report says.
“In DBIRD’s submission to the Standing Committee, it is argued that there are also a number of factors that could lead to new employment opportunities and make this transition easier.
“Firstly, early models of automated vehicles may need to hand back control to a human driver or be limited in the scope of their operations, meaning that professional drivers will still be required. Professional driver roles may evolve to place a stronger focus on non-driving tasks, such as customer service.
“Some challenging or specialist driving tasks may require a human driver for an extended period.
“In the longer run, however, employment is anticipated to fall in this industry. Currently, all CAVs are imported and have extensive testing prior to use.”
Read a similar analysis on likely job losses due to robotics, here
“Any job losses experienced within the traditional transportation sector will be offset by the many jobs created within the engineering, automotive, electrical and software industry sectors, which will increasingly be called on to service and support the driverless vehicle industry,” ADVI executive director Rita Excell says.
“There is growing agreement that connected and autonomous vehicles will significantly change how we live, use and get around our cities, and what this report shows us is that this technology can substantially improve access to jobs, services and entertainment, as well as create new industries and occupations.
“Just as we have seen quite mainstream jobs transition over the course of time – such as blacksmiths, milkman, elevator and switchboard operators – the introduction of driverless vehicles will create jobs that haven’t even been considered yet.
“The critical transition period for employment and growth will start in 2025 as we see more people start to embrace this new technology and change the way they get around – especially when it comes to swapping car ownership for the convenience of hiring and using a car as and when they need it like they now do with Uber and rideshare.”
Growth
The report also identifies strong growth opportunities for businesses operating in large-scale leasing and fleet rental and management.
New business models to be introduced are expected to generate additional work for professional and advisory firms setting up vehicle management systems to hire, maintain, service, clean, recharge and store new driverless vehicle fleets.
“As example, fleet management software needs to be developed and new on-board processing, monitoring and control units will need to be developed and installed,” Excell says.
“Business user apps for passengers and back-end systems for booking, dispatching, routing, billing and customer services all need to be developed and managed.
“Even travelling in a driverless vehicle will create a range of new roles, because someone will need to develop new forms of digital entertainment and the full range of mobile business facilities expected by consumers.”
Who gains
Sectors expected to benefit from driverless vehicles include:
- automotive – particularly for software and digital media
- electronics and software – with software costs predicted to rise from 10 per cent of current car values to 40 per cent
- land development – transition of parking spots to housing, parks and other uses
- digital media – new content to be enjoyed for passengers while travelling in fully autonomous mode.
Excell insists Australia remains well-placed to be a global supplier and implementer of driverless vehicles, and the nation can expect entirely new mobility service value chains to emerge.
“As we see more vehicles sold with Level 5 capability – where a vehicle operates without human intervention – the jobs growth is predicted to be as high as 9,221 additional direct and indirect jobs created every year between 2036 and 2045,” she says.
“Driverless vehicles can bring new opportunities if there is a focus on producing high value products and services and the new infrastructure needed by the new extended global automotive supply chains necessary to enable the industry to operate.
“You only have to consider the e-commerce, mobile phone and internet provider industries to understand that business service roles are now a key part of the Australian economy, and we can expect a raft of new jobs to be created across professional, scientific and technical services industries.”
Elsewhere in the economy, ADVI expects 932 direct jobs and 1,059 indirect full time equivalent jobs per annum to 2025.