Although new heavy vehicle registrations in Australia are typically slow across the first quarter of the year, the ARTSA Institute’s (ARTSA-i) March Quarter 2025 Heavy Vehicle Market Report has shown new registrations this year are not just typically slow, but even down on comparable periods in recent years.
The data indicates new heavy vehicle registrations in Q1 this year are the lowest since 2022, with double digit percentage drops in new registrations seen in all categories of vehicle and trailer.
This slow and these double digit drops, although stark, must be taken with a pinch of salt though, as the historically high registrations seen in 2023 and 2024 mean this year’s numbers are largely in line with earlier data from 2018-2022.
“The first quarter of the calendar year is traditionally a slow one for new heavy vehicle registrations,” the report states. “Subsequent quarters invariably out-perform in terms of new registrations.
“However, the start to 2025 is already seeing heavy vehicle registration numbers for the first quarter 11 per cent to 23 per cent below the 2024 Q1 data.
“While these percentage drops are high – double digit for all categories – it needs to be seen in the light of the historic data.
“The previous two Q1s in 2023 and 2024 were historic highs. If they are put aside then the new registrations for 2025 are largely in line with the earlier data back to 2018.”
ARTSA-i also cited comments made in its Q1 2024 report, and says they are still relevant to Australia’s truck market 12 months later.
“Is this a case of market slow down? It would appear so, although the usual investor caveat should be applied of ‘past performance not being an indicator of future performance,” it says.
“Given we have had four years of steady if not double digit percentage growth in Q1 data, to have a similar start in 2024 to 2022 is not all bad news.
“For now, what we can say is perhaps the market has ‘touched the brakes’ and a slowdown appears to be occurring based upon these new vehicle registration numbers.”
Read more ATN:
Road Transport Associations stand together against industry racism
NHVR partners with police for Operation Omega II
Scania confirmed as buyer for battling battery manufacturer