Australian freight transport expected to be modest as the slowdown in China bites here
July 3, 2013
Economic analysis firm Business Monitor International (BMI) has forecast negligible growth in Australian freight transport as the slowdown in China bites here.
BMI says China’s likely growth had been put at about 8 percent but it now feels that this rate is no longer sustainable.
In its Australian Freight Transport Report Q3 2013, it points out that, with China accounting for 27.4 percent of Australia’s imports and 18.5 percent its exports, “what impacts China will also affect Australia”.
“Therefore, the slowing of China’s economic growth is the greatest threat to Australia’s freight transport sector over the medium term,” the report’s authors say.
“The outperformer in terms of mode is set to be air freight in 2013 with year-on-year growth coming in at over 3 percent.
“Road freight’s annual growth is forecast at an uninspiring 1.08 percent, while rail freight is set for a torrid year, with negligible growth predicted.”
BMI’s forecast for the year is:
- road freight to increase by 1.08 percent
- air freight tonnage to grow 3.37 percent
- rail freight tonnage up 0.09 percent
- Port of Melbourne tonnage throughput to rise 3 percent
- Port of Sydney tonnage throughput to rise 0.43 percent
- total real trade growth to grow 1.72 percent.
Despite the fairly grim outlook, BMI does acknowledge that China may surprise. However, that still might not do much to accelerate the Australian economy.
“In terms of upside risks, Chinese economic growth, while continuing to slow in 2013 to a forecast 7.5 percent from 7.7 percent, is still strong in global terms,” the research firm says.
“In fact, Chinese economic data are looking more positive than expected, hence BMI’s prediction that the slowdown will not be as dramatic as first thought.
“In line with the projected slowdown in economic growth in its largest trade partner, we forecast Australia’s economy to expand by just 1.5 percent in 2013, down from 3.2 percent estimated expansion in 2012.”
