Figures for September quarter reflect significant recent volatility
The volatility in fatal crashes involving heavy vehicles is on display again in the latest figures from the Bureau of Infrastructure, Transport and Regional Economics (BITRE).
Fatal heavy vehicle crashes Australia bulletin for the July-September quarter shows a rise of 7. 8 per cent for the 12 months to September compared with the same period last year, from 153 to 165.
For articulated trucks, the rise was up 11 per cent from 82 to 91. But the figure for the year to September 2017 was 118.
The numbers for heavy rigids were 88, 90 and 84 counting back to September 2017.
The upshot is that total fatal heavy truck crashes have reversed by more than half the fall recorded in September last year, the total counting back being 182, 170 and 190.
An indication of volatility through the decade is that dips of around 10 per cent were recorded for September 2011: to 205 from 226: 2013: 196 from 220; 2018: to 170 from 190.
Jumps have tended to be smaller, the biggest being 2010: to 226 from 209; with 2012: 220 from 205 and 2019: 182 from 170.
See what the last BITRE fatal crash statistics revealed, here
Despite the most recent rise, the percentage trend has been promising.
The percentage change for the last 10 year, five years and three years for articulated trucks has been -4.1, -2.9 and -4.2, while that for heavy rigids has been 2.0, 2.2 and 1.2.
As usual, the figures by state show a mixed picture on low and therefore statistically difficult totals.
For articulated trucks, fatal crashes for the 12 months to September in South Australian were up 200 per cent, from five to 15, which appears to have skewed its three-year percentage change upward to 2 per cent.
Next worse was Victoria, up 35.7 per cent for the 12 months, from 14 to 19 but with a three year average drop of 5.9 per cent.
Western Australia saw its numbers for the 12 months fall from12 to nine and its three year average down 4.5 per cent.
For the heavy rigids, Victoria was up 26.7 per cent from 15 to 19 and New South Wales was up 15.4 per cent from 26 to 30, though the three year trend was up 0.4 per cent and down 0.7 per cent respectively.